Last week, we'd increasingly noted that rates had no incentive to move any lower without market participants getting their hands on the important Employment Situation Report--the most important piece of economic data each month and recently postponed due to the shutdown.  Despite the lack of motivation to move lower, rates held their ground fairly well--remaining in a new range that was distinctly separate from that which characterizes most of the July-September time frame.

At current levels, we're beginning to blur the lines between these two zones of recent rate levels.  The outlook will remain blurry until the shutdown ends and the important economic data is flowing again.  It continues to be the case that we can't expect a meaningful move lower without a downbeat jobs report.